Most workforce forecasts live in someone’s head. One operations manager knows who’s available, when projects wrap, and where gaps are forming. The problem is that knowledge only works when they’re in the room. When they’re on vacation, in a meeting, or stuck on a job site, everyone else is guessing.
Table of Contents
“The forecasting tools have been huge for me,” says Jamie Miller, Director of Engineering Development at Sellen Construction. “I don’t have to spend hours creating the spreadsheets and then telling everyone how to interpret them because it’s only in my brain.”
For general contractors managing dozens of active projects and hundreds of employees across multiple offices, the question isn’t whether to forecast workforce needs. It’s how to do it well enough that the numbers are trusted when decisions lock in capacity months ahead.
92% of construction firms report difficulty filling open positions, and 45% cite labor shortages as the leading cause of project delays. In this environment, workforce forecasting isn’t a nice-to-have planning exercise. It’s how you avoid discovering staffing gaps the same week they become emergencies.
What is workforce forecasting?
Workforce forecasting uses historical and forward-looking data to predict future staffing needs. In construction, that means answering questions your operations team needs answered before they become urgent: Do we have capacity to take on that hospital project if we win? When does the superintendent shortage we’ve been hearing about actually hit our bench? If that industrial job extends three months, who absorbs the impact?
The core idea is simple. You compare projected demand (projects, timelines, role requirements) against projected supply (who you have, when they’re available, what they can do). The gap between those two numbers is what you need to solve.
What separates good forecasting from guesswork is data quality and time horizon. A forecast built on outdated project schedules and rough headcounts breaks down the moment reality diverges from your assumptions. A forecast connected to live project data and pursuit pipeline gives you weeks or months to adjust before problems materialize.
IWhy workforce forecasting matters for construction
Construction is a long game with tight margins. Projects run for months or years. Mobilization dates are fixed. The people who make projects successful take time to find, hire, and onboard. Getting workforce predictions wrong carries real costs.
Hiring decisions happen too late
When forecasts run low, you discover staffing gaps after projects have started. That means calling a staffing agency on Thursday hoping someone qualified is available Monday. It means interviewing candidates while a client waits. It means onboarding a new superintendent during the exact phase when you needed someone who already knew your systems.
The industry faces a projected shortfall of 349,000 to 500,000 workers in 2026, depending on economic conditions. Finding qualified people already takes longer than anyone wants. Accurate forecasting means you start recruiting in January for a role you’ll need in April, not scrambling in March for someone who can start next week.
Bidding commits capacity you may not have
Every bid represents a commitment of future capacity. Without a forecast you trust, basic questions go unanswered before you submit: Do we have the people if we win? What else gets affected? Would we need to hire, and can we realistically do that in time?
Without visibility into workforce supply, you’re either passing on pursuits because you’re not sure you can staff them, or you’re winning work and then realizing you have to pull your best PM off another project to cover. Neither conversation is one you want to have.
Your best people absorb the shortfall
When forecasts consistently run low, the same reliable people absorb the gaps. The superintendent who never says no ends up on every difficult project. The PM who always figures it out works weekends for three months straight.
Eventually, they update their LinkedIn. Or they make the kind of mistake that only happens when someone is stretched too thin. 41% of construction workers are expected to retire by 2031, and only 10% of the current workforce is under 25. Losing experienced people now doesn’t just hurt morale. It hurts your ability to win and deliver the work that needs their skillset.
Key methods for workforce forecasting
Construction firms use several approaches depending on their data maturity and planning needs. Most effective implementations combine multiple methods.
Quantitative methods
Quantitative forecasting relies on historical data to project future needs. These work best when you have reliable records of past projects, staffing patterns, and utilization.
Trend analysis examines past workforce patterns to estimate future needs. If healthcare projects historically require 20% more PM hours than industrial work, that pattern informs future staffing. If project closeouts consistently run two months longer than planned, your forecast should account for that.
Utilization tracking measures how much of your available capacity is actually deployed. A firm running at 75% utilization has different forecasting needs than one running at 92%. Tracking utilization over time reveals seasonal patterns, project-type variations, and early warning signs of capacity constraints.
Keyan Zandy, CEO at Skiles Group, describes what changed when they moved from spreadsheets to real-time data: “Bridgit Bench has become a critical tool for our workforce planning. It ensures our data is accurate and up-to-date, leading to better decision-making and efficient resource allocation.”
Qualitative methods
When historical data is sparse or conditions are changing, qualitative methods fill the gap. These rely on expert judgment and scenario planning.
Managerial input draws on the knowledge of project directors and superintendents who know their teams and projects intimately. They often spot capacity issues before they show up in the numbers, like the PM who’s about to go on parental leave or the superintendent who’s hinting at retirement.
Scenario planning maps out multiple futures rather than betting on one. What if you win the data center pursuit? What if that hospital project extends six months? What if you lose two senior PMs to a competitor? Running these scenarios before they happen means you’ve already thought through the response.
Hybrid approaches
The most effective forecasting combines data-driven analysis with expert judgment. Historical patterns inform the baseline. Probability-weighted pursuit pipelines project demand. Scenario planning stress-tests assumptions. Regular review with operations leadership catches what the numbers miss.
How to build a workforce forecast
Start with what you know: current assignments, project schedules, and headcount by role. Add what you’re expecting: pursuits in the pipeline weighted by probability, projects likely to extend, planned hires and departures.
Map current capacity
Document who you have, where they’re assigned, and when those assignments end. For each role type (PMs, superintendents, project engineers), calculate your total available capacity and current utilization. This is your baseline.
Most contractors track this at the role level. More mature forecasting includes individual skills, experience, and certifications. A superintendent with healthcare experience isn’t interchangeable with one who’s only done industrial work, even if they’re both available.
Project future demand
Pull your project schedule forward 6-12 months. For each project, estimate the roles and hours required by phase. Account for pursuits in your pipeline, discounted by probability. A signed contract counts fully. A pursuit at 20% probability counts at 20%.
The gap between projected demand and current capacity is what you need to solve. If you’re showing three PMs short in Q3, you now have time to address it through hiring, reallocation, or adjusting which pursuits to chase.
Update continuously
Static forecasts go stale. Project schedules shift. Pursuits advance or die. People leave or join. Effective forecasting is a living process, updated at least monthly and reviewed before major decisions.
Daniel Barry, VP of Operations at Schimenti, describes the before and after: “We used an Excel spreadsheet to manage our resources, which took a lot of time and didn’t give us the ability to forecast out too far. It was cumbersome. If something changes, the spreadsheet has to be updated. If you’re remote, it becomes difficult.”
Common forecasting mistakes to avoid
Forecasts fail for predictable reasons. Understanding where breakdowns happen helps fix the process.
Data lives in too many places
Workforce data sits in spreadsheets. Project data sits in PM software. Pursuits sit in CRM. HR data sits somewhere else. When these systems don’t connect, building a forecast means copying and pasting from four sources. By the time you finish, half of it is already out of date.
This is why construction firms increasingly move workforce planning to dedicated platforms that integrate with existing systems. When project changes in Procore automatically update workforce views, forecasts stay current without manual reconciliation.
Treating all pursuits equally
A $50 million project at 10% probability shouldn’t affect your forecast the same way as a $50 million signed contract. But when contractors treat every potential project as equally likely, forecasts swing wildly. Effective forecasting weights demand by realistic win probability and adjusts as pursuits move through stages.
Assuming projects end on time
Labor shortages cause 30-40% of construction project delays, with large projects averaging 17 weeks behind schedule. If your forecasts assume projects hit original end dates, you’ll systematically underestimate how long people remain tied up on current work. Build in realistic assumptions about extensions and closeout timing.
Connecting forecasting to business decisions
The best forecasts don’t help if they sit in a dashboard no one checks. Weave forecasting into decisions that already happen.
Before bidding: Check workforce impact. Verify that winning wouldn’t mean robbing Peter to pay Paul on existing projects. Identify which roles need filling and whether your timeline allows for hiring. Make capacity a standard input to go/no-go decisions.
In staffing meetings: Pull up the forecast. How does today’s assignment affect projected utilization next quarter? Are you creating a bottleneck three months out? Regular review keeps forecasts useful and surfaces problems while there’s time to act.
With recruiting: HR and recruiting should see the forecast regularly. When demand is projected to outrun capacity, recruiting can start early. When capacity exceeds demand, hiring can pause before you add payroll you don’t need.
Melissa Hockey, People and Culture Manager at Mosaic Property Group, describes what visibility changed: “Bridgit has given us a level of insight into our workforce planning that we simply didn’t have before. This visibility is now critical for making proactive decisions about resource allocation and future growth.”
Getting started with workforce forecasting
Most contractors do well with a rolling 12-month forecast updated monthly. The first three months should aim for high accuracy. Months 4-12 provide planning visibility with increasing uncertainty.
At minimum, you need current assignments, project schedules, and headcount by role. For better accuracy, add pursuit pipeline with probability weighting, individual availability, and how long similar projects actually took. The most accurate forecasts also track experience, including build-type history, client relationships, and who works well together.
The contractors who forecast well share a common trait: they treat it as an ongoing discipline rather than something they do once a quarter. They measure accuracy, learn from where they missed, and get better over time. In a market where finding qualified workers is the top challenge and every bid commits future capacity, seeing what’s coming gives you options. Fewer surprise phone calls, fewer weekend scrambles, fewer conversations you’d rather not have.
See how the Forecasting Dashboard works
Think your workforce planning meetings could be more productive?
Download our ebook to learn how to run efficient, effective workforce planning meetings with your team.
Michel Richer
Michel Richer is the Manager of Content and Product Marketing at Bridgit. He started in the construction industry early on with a local restoration company. Michel is driven to propel the construction industry forward by helping to eliminate outdated, ineffective processes.
